Fielder waiting on the Rangers

Baseball Betting Lines

01/18/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's starting to become clear that Prince Fielder wants no part of playing for the Washington Nationals. If he had he would have been introduced at Nationals Park weeks ago.

The Texas Rangers are his first choice. So much so that he is willing to wait for them, while they try to get Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish to put pen to paper.

Either way it should all come to a head this week, as Darvish has a Wednesday deadline to come to an agreement with the Rangers. Texas, of course, posted a record $51.7 million for him and most expect a deal to be ironed out by the 5 p.m. (ET) deadline.

So then the question becomes can the Rangers fit both players?

In a word. Absolutely. Let's not forget Texas is now among the big boys in Major League Baseball. They might not be the superpowers that are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, but back-to-back American League pennants and more importantly, a 20-year, $1.6-billion television contract with Fox Sports that was agreed to in 2010 puts them awfully close.

If anything they need to keep pace with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who in case you haven't heard added Albert Pujols and the Rangers' best pitcher from a year ago, C.J. Wilson, this winter.

Surprisingly, the market hasn't really come together for a 27-year-old slugger, who hit 38 home runs and drove in 120 runs for the National League Central champion Milwaukee Brewers this past season. Washington has really been the only other team linked to Fielder.

You'd figure he'd take his time here, but we are less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting. In fact, no nine-figure deal has ever been agreed to after December.

I think he wants Texas and is just waiting to see how this Darvish thing pans out. Fielder must have some sort of assurance from the Rangers that he is still heavily in their plans for him to wait this out.

Seattle may have been an option, but with its deal for Jesus Montero over the weekend that probably puts them out of the running. The same goes for the Chicago Cubs, who acquired San Diego first baseman Anthony Rizzo last week.

A new team, though, may have entered the fray for Fielder's services on Tuesday when it was learned that Detroit Tigers' designated hitter Victor Martinez would be lost for the season with a torn ACL.

The Tigers, though, appear more likely to go the Johnny Damon, Carlos Pena route rather than Fielder. The same can be said about the New York Yankees, who dealt their DH over the weekend to Seattle.

I've thought all along that Fielder to Texas was basically a fait accompli.

Do they need him? Of course not. This is a lineup that last year finished first in batting average (.283), second in homers (210) and third in runs scored (855).

But you can always use a bat like Fielder's especially when your starting rotation is somewhat of a question mark without Wilson. Imagine the big man in the middle of a lineup that already includes Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young and Mike Napoli.

Speaking of Hamilton. He could be the causality in all of this. He signed a two-year extension last year and is eligible to become a free agent at season's end. Maybe the Rangers are willing to bite the bullet on some added payroll this year, knowing they have no intention of paying the oft-injured Hamilton next year.

We've been reminded all too often baseball is a business. You tell me who you'd rather deal out a $100 million deal to, Prince or Hamilton? When healthy Hamilton is probably the better hitter, but he is always nicked up. Plus who knows what the years of drug abuse did to his body.

Say what you want about Fielder, but he is never hurt. Last year he was the only player in the majors to play in all 162 games and despite his bulky presence, he has averaged 160 games in his six full seasons in the league.

There are ways to make this work. Fielder and his agent Scott Boras know this. Darvish is the one with the deadline. Once that's settled Fielder will go shortly thereafter and I fully expect him to land in Arlington.

If not then watch his presser in D.C. next week and don't believe a word he says when he says the Nationals were his first choice all along.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.