Hoosiers and Wolverines meet in Big Ten showdown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/01/2012 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of ranked foes in the Big Ten Conference square off in Ann Arbor this evening, as No. 20 Indiana comes calling on No. 23 Michigan.

Indiana started the season impressively, jumping out to a 12-0 record before suffering its first defeat at Michigan State in the conference opener on December 28. The Hoosiers bounced back to win their next three, but after that coach Tom Crean's club lost 4-of-5. IU is coming off a 103-89 victory over Iowa in its last outing, and while the Hoosiers are 17-5 on the year, they are just 3-4 in true road games.

Michigan too got off to a sensational start to the 2011-12 campaign, streaking out to a 12-2 mark before crashing back to Earth with a 4-4 mark since. The Wolverines are fresh off a demoralizing 64-49 loss at Ohio State on Sunday, and this bout is the second in a three-game stretch the team will play against Top-25 competition -- at No. 9 Michigan State this Sunday being the last. The Maize and Blue are a perfect 12-0 at home this season, and coach John Beilein's club has won 13 straight at Crisler Arena overall.

Indiana owns a commanding 101-55 lead in the all-time series with Michigan, but things have been pretty even of late as the teams have split the last eight meetings. The Hoosiers won the most recent encounter, taking a 73-71 decision at home on January 5 of this year.

Indiana is one of the more potent offensive teams in the Big Ten, as it averages 79.5 ppg in hitting 50.1 percent of its field goal attempts, which includes a 43.8 percent showing from three-point range. The Hoosiers are also 73.8 percent accurate at the charity stripe, and they own favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.1) and turnovers (+1.7) as well. Defensively, the team yields 65.8 ppg, with the opposition hitting their field goals 42.4 percent of the time, which includes a 32.7 percent showing from beyond the arc. Cody Zeller (15.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is IU's leading scorer and rebounder, while Christian Watford (12.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Jordan Hulls (11.9 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Victor Oladipo (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) round out the unit's double-digit scorers. In the 103-point outburst against Iowa, Zeller scored a career-high 26 points to lead six Hoosiers in double figures, and Indiana shot 55.2 percent from the field while converting 25-of-31 free throws. IU won the rebounding battle, 37-22, handed out 20 assists, and scored 21 points off 17 Hawkeye turnovers.

Michigan isn't quite the offensive juggernaut its counterpart tonight is, but the team is shooting 45.9 percent from the field, and has made good on 34.3 percent of its three-point tries. The Wolverines boast just double-digit scorers in the form of Tim Hardaway, Jr. (15.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Trey Burke (14.1 ppg, 5.0 apg), although Zack Novak (9.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Evan Smotrycz (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg) are close to joining the ranks thanks to both hitting better than 40 percent of their three-point attempts. From a defensive standpoint, UM is allowing just 61.1 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 42.1 percent overall and 35.4 percent from downtown, and the team comes into this contest with positive differentials in both rebounding (+1.8) and turnovers (+1.4) as well. Michigan scored a season-low 49 points in its recent outing at Ohio State, as Hardaway, Jr. and Burke tallied 15 and 13 points, respectively, as the only Wolverines to reach double figures in the loss. The team shot just 35.8 percent from the field, while the Buckeyes claimed a 15-3 edge in points from the foul line and a 38-29 advantage on the glass.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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