Inter's winning run halted by Lecce

Soccer Betting Lines

01/29/2012 - Lecce, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan saw its seven-match winning streak in Serie A come to an end on Sunday at Lecce as Guillermo Giacomazzi's 40th- minute goal was enough to give the hosts a 1-0 win.

The goal arrived from a Massimo Oddo ball into the penalty area that Giacomazzi brought down and fired past goalkeeper Julio Cesar on the turn.

Inter cranked up the pressure in the second half and had two goals called back for offsides before a string of saves from Lecce goalkeeper Massimiliano Benassi preserved the win.

The first stop denied Ricardo Alvarez before he made another save on Maicon. But the best effort of the day came in the game's final minute as Benassi reacted well to keep out a close-range header from Giampaolo Pazzini following an Alvarez free kick.

Lecce remains in the bottom three but moves to within three points of safety having collected seven points from its last three matches.

Inter drops back to fifth place and nine points off the pace of leaders Juventus.

AC Milan 3, Cagliari 0

Milan, Italy - Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored his Serie A-high 15th goal and added an assist, as AC Milan rolled to a 3-0 win over Cagliari on Sunday at the San Siro to move back within one point of Serie A leader Juventus.

Ibrahimovic scored off a free kick after 32 minutes, then chested down a pass for Antonio Nocerino to hammer home for his seventh goal in the 39th.

Massimo Ambrosini added an insurance goal in the 75th, as Milan clinched its fifth win in its last six. The defending Serie A champions are second on 43 points behind unbeaten leader Juve.

Cagliari lost for the third time in its last six as it slipped to 13th with just 23 points from 20 matches.

Fiorentina 2, Siena 1

Florence, Italy - Fiorentina claimed its second win in seven matches on Sunday with a 2-1 home triumph over Siena.

Stevan Jovetic notched the opening goal after four minutes and Cesare Natali doubled the lead shortly after the hour mark for the Viola.

Emanuele Calaio handed Siena a chance to get back into the game with a penalty kick in the 89th minute following a handball from Matija Nastasic, but the hosts held out for all three points and move nine points clear of the drop zone, with Siena sitting only three points above the bottom three.

Atalanta 1, Cesena 0

Cesena, Italy - Atalanta ended a three-match losing streak on Sunday as Marco Rossi's own goal gave the visitors a 1-0 win at Cesena.

A cross from Ezequiel Schelotto in the 76th minute was deflected by Rossi into his own net, but Cesena was given a chance three minutes later when Atalanta's German Denis received a second yellow card.

Substitute Jorge Martinez had the best chance over the final 10 minutes when his shot from eight yards in the dying moments was kept out by goalkeeper Andrea Consigli, dealing Cesena its fifth loss in six matches.

Lazio 3, Chievo 0

Verona, Italy - Lazio climbed into the top four on Sunday after notching a 3-0 win at Chievo that moves the club to within two points of third-place Udinese.

Edy Reja's side had lost two of its last three games but started well with Hernanes putting the visitors ahead after 21 minutes.

The teams remained separated by just one goal until the final minutes, when Lazio's Miroslav Klose tallied two late goals to seal the win and move his team past Inter Milan.

Chievo is 12th following the loss, which is the club's second in four games.

Genoa 3, Napoli 2

Genoa, Italy - Two goals from Rodrigo Palacio helped Genoa to a 3-2 win over Napoli on Sunday at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium as the hosts survived a late scare to remain in the top half of the league.

Genoa entered the contest having lost three of its last four games, but got off to a fantastic start as first-half strikes from Palacio and Alberto Gilardino put the hosts up two goals at the break.

Palacio appeared to wrap up the points with his second goal of the match 20 minutes from time, but Napoli rallied to pull to within a goal in the final 10 minutes as Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi scored three minutes apart.

The rally fell short, however, and Napoli saw its four-game unbeaten streak come to an end.

Palermo 2, Novara 0

Palermo, Italy - Palermo dealt last-place Novara its fourth successive defeat on Sunday as two goals from Igor Budan gave the hosts a 2-0 win at the Renzo Barbera.

Fabrizio Miccoli played provider on both of Budan's goals, with the first coming four minutes before halftime on a header.

Palermo had lost two of its previous three contests, but another header from Budan in the 72nd minute after Miccoli's cross secured the win and keeps the club in the top eight.

Novara is seven points from safety and looks to be facing a real battle to stay in the top flight.

Roma 1, Bologna 1

Rome, Italy - Roma saw its run of four straight wins in Serie A come to a halt at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday as bottom-half side Bologna claimed a 1-1 draw.

Marco Di Vaio gave the visitors the lead in the 56th minute, with Roma answering through Miralem Pjanic six minutes later to salvage a point.

Both sides had chances to snatch the win, but both had to settle for a point, which gives Bologna three successive draws and moves the club five points clear of the bottom three.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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